Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.926788 2.015928 2.110458 2.218813 2.340418 2.473708 2.632320
2025-10-26 1.829321 1.943881 2.069851 2.220340 2.397641 2.603201 2.864882
2025-11-02 1.739277 1.866312 2.009274 2.184809 2.398687 2.656973 3.003372
2025-11-09 1.679879 1.817119 1.974579 2.172509 2.420948 2.732440 3.171835
2025-11-16 1.631692 1.776801 1.946007 2.163031 2.442664 2.805495 3.342740
2025-11-23 1.588708 1.739620 1.918002 2.150773 2.457668 2.868429 3.505297
2025-11-30 1.562333 1.720525 1.910169 2.162178 2.502791 2.974753 3.747080
2025-12-07 1.509789 1.667085 1.856905 2.111338 2.459384 2.950009 3.775568
2025-12-14 1.478484 1.638476 1.833316 2.097640 2.465401 2.996823 3.928950
2025-12-21 1.446399 1.607627 1.805424 2.076414 2.458798 3.023099 4.049825
2025-12-28 1.435491 1.602692 1.810160 2.098802 2.515315 3.151453 4.383796
2026-01-04 1.430132 1.604329 1.823113 2.132613 2.590451 3.317842 4.839854
2026-01-11 1.407384 1.583699 1.806902 2.126158 2.606420 3.390734 5.128773
2026-01-18 1.389714 1.568919 1.797691 2.128806 2.636099 3.490508 5.517699
2026-01-25 1.360325 1.538060 1.765841 2.097354 2.609690 3.485613 5.637547
2026-02-01 1.340299 1.518845 1.749010 2.086814 2.615848 3.541646 5.948743
2026-02-08 1.322254 1.501704 1.734363 2.078666 2.625085 3.604369 6.311634
2026-02-15 1.304205 1.484068 1.718441 2.067835 2.628969 3.656825 6.672861
2026-02-22 1.294675 1.477367 1.717184 2.078577 2.669394 3.788472 7.412815
2026-03-01 1.266004 1.444591 1.678995 2.032175 2.609413 3.702225 7.236015
2026-03-08 1.249980 1.428404 1.663500 2.019752 2.607589 3.741113 7.627177
2026-03-15 1.232260 1.409597 1.643890 2.000353 2.592511 3.749529 7.894974
2026-03-22 1.228541 1.409450 1.650313 2.021034 2.649106 3.925714 9.212506